Thursday, November 02, 2006

It ain't over...

...until the Fat Lady sings.
 
If experience is any guide, the oil and the revenues from the oil will have a big say in the outcome.

Right now, the Iraqis are doing just what Bush wants them to do- fighting among themselves and demanding that US troops withdraw to bases in the countryside. Presumably at some point a Quisling government will make a deal with the Bushies, involving the use of US troops to protect sweetheart contracts that steal the oil.

The Sunni presumably are the group with the best memories of what national control of the oil can buy. If the Shiites were well and truely frozen out of the benefits under Saddam, the Shiite 'street' may not even miss national control of the oil, or may be more cheaply bought off than the Sunnis, but of course, there are a lot more Shiites to buy off.

The situation, in short, looks very glum for the average American, but is pretty much going according to plan for the Bushies.  If that in fact is the case, I wouldn't expect an early end to any of this.

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